Major sporting events are flash points for online threat actors driven by geopolitics, ideology, or just the opportunity to seek global attention. With an eye on the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics slated to begin Feb. 6, Graphika analyzed the past 60 days of online communities and conversation topics using a broad set of categories to identify signals of risk.

On the social media platforms we monitor, although we saw some negative sentiment expressed, Graphika analysts didn’t yet see any consistent influencers responsible for disseminating adversarial narratives, and overall conversation in most major communities tended to show support or neutrality toward the Games. Even in critical conversations, participants mostly exploited scandals to deride domestic Italian politics, the International Olympic Committee (IOC), or geopolitical rivals, rather than to suggest a boycott of the Games or associated brands.

Over the past two months, discussion about the Olympics shifted focus from mostly rules and regulations to specific controversies. As the Olympics start draws closer, that shift matters. Influence operations (IOs), hacktivists, and other threat actors are scanning the horizon for attention-grabbing controversies and events to promote their own messages or ideologies. States, organizations, media companies, and brands should expect – and prepare to mitigate – threats manifesting online among diverse, fast-moving sources. Below we break down the possibilities into three main risk categories (although threats often overlap).


X post with AI-generated image of protesters with flag reading "Open Internet"
Caption: X post from Jan. 9, 2026 protesting Italy’s fine against Cloudflare.


General Risks

The most prevalent general risk-relevant narratives circulating online about the Olympics the past 60 days remained relatively static over that period. Any fallout from them would be mainly reputational or financial: implications that organizations facilitating and sponsoring the 2026 Winter Games are enabling unethical or unsafe practices can potentially trigger calls for boycotts and investment withdrawal.


Geopolitics-Driven Risks

Participation Polarization

Routine Olympic-related events and protocols, such as related to athlete and country participation, eligibility, and medal ceremonies, can quickly incite outrage at organizers, sponsors, and sometimes individual athletes.

  • Reporting that Italian politicians, including Milan’s mayor, are opposing US ICE agents providing security at the Milan Cortina Olympics has not driven online discussion in our dataset. We will continue monitoring for signs of this topic.
  • Russian and Belarusian participation in the 2026 Milan Cortina Olympics continues to polarize online communities. The IOC’s Individual Neutral Athlete approach is meant to separate athletes from state symbolism, but online narratives often treat every eligibility decision as a political statement. Pro‑Ukraine and pro‑EU voices argue that Russia should remain excluded from participation under its flag, while pro‑Russia and populist networks frame the IOC’s rules as unfairness or Western “double standards.” Some critics have also pointed to the IOC rejecting calls for banning U.S. participation over American actions in Venezuela as evidence of inconsistent standards. Either position can motivate supporters to boycott the Winter Olympics, associated organizations, or media coverage.
  • The Associated Press reported that authorities prevented pro‑Palestine activists from reaching the torch relay route in Rome. This news drove only limited online discussion in our dataset.


Terrorism Risk

Although we didn’t see any explicit claims coming from designated terror organizations or affiliate organizations in our data collection, based on previous Games activity, we’ll continue to monitor this space. In 2024, designated terror organizations threatened the Paris Summer Games, including via media assets of the Islamic State (IS) group. Those threats took the same tone of IS-related media publications that had targeted football (soccer) supporters during the UEFA Champions League games around Europe in March 2024.


X post with aerial map of plans for bobsleigh courseCaption: Post on X criticizing the construction of bobsleigh track for Winter Olympics.



Sustainability and Activism

Olympic event venues, assets, and sponsor brand activations represent high-value protest triggers because the media are already there. Protests – and counter‑protests – can influence online dialogues about the Olympics and raise on‑site security demands.

  • Reuters reported that communities in the Dolomites are concerned the Games will exacerbate the effects of overtourism on fragile mountain areas already stressed by social‑media‑driven visitors. This news drove only limited online activity, our data showed, mainly focused on the event’s general sustainability and consideration of the dwindling number of host cities available for the Winter Olympics.
  • Back in 2024, protesters in Milan focused on the unsustainability of the announced Olympic event sites. Over the past two months, the prevailing online conversation about sustainability focused positively or neutrally on the reuse and modularity of the current Games’ venues, including the Olympic Village. We also observed criticism, although limited, from pro-China communities about the expected reliance on “fake snow” for the Games.


Exploitation by Influential Online Actors

IO actors use high-profile events to further their ideological messages or attract engagement, which can include exploiting or damaging brand reputations, or using security threats to affect attendance or tourism. Although we haven’t yet seen any known IOs weighing in on the upcoming Games, we’ll continue to monitor signals related to this threat, as our monitoring and public reporting during the 2024 Paris Games leads us to expect that IOs will exploit the Milan Cortina Games. Potential threats include the spread of false or misleading claims about political, security, and even accommodations-related developments, which may be supported by AI-generated content.

For example, in 2024, Graphika saw the Russia-aligned Storm-1679 IO spread AI-generated and altered images and videos published by French and international media. They used that content to regularly impersonate the media outlets to make false or misleading claims about the 2024 Paris Olympics’ security, organization, and popularity. In other activity, our team observed Russian IO-linked actors spread an unverified video posted on X allegedly showing a Hamas supporter threatening “rivers of blood in the streets of Paris” during the 2024 Games.

Also in 2024, a set of pro-China social media accounts promoted the boycott of a Taiwanese hotel chain for allegedly not flying the Chinese flag at its Paris location during the Olympics, and a set of pro-China accounts accused the U.S. of “power politics” and “bullying” the World Anti-Doping Agency with claims of covering up doping allegations against top Chinese swimmers.


Ideology-Driven Risks


Hacktivists Threaten Personal, Professional Integrity

Hacktivists’ messaging and online activity often align with their ideologies and can include discrediting organizations or states, leaking sensitive data, and disabling websites or online services via cyber attacks. Graphika hasn’t yet seen the hacktivist groups we monitor targeting the 2026 Winter Games, but we’ll continue to monitor signals related to this threat; based on activity we reported on during the 2024 Summer Olympics, we might expect to see targeting of Italy’s online assets and doxing of athletes, with some cross-group collaboration.

For example, during the 2024 Paris Olympics, two pro-Russia hacktivist groups released documents on Telegram stolen from the Polish Anti-Doping Agency (POLADA) that revealed personally identifiable information (PII) of athletes given doping tests. Athletes and media in Poland quickly engaged in speculation online about the documents’ authenticity, adding fuel to the controversy before POLADA confirmed the hack. In addition, an anti-Zionist and a pro-Russia hacktivist group doxed and released the PII of Israeli Olympic athletes and foreign fighters in Ukraine, respectively.

Also in 2024, we observed an international hacktivist collective attacking French websites with defacement or distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks during the 2024 Summer Games. Some collective members said the opening ceremony disrespected Jesus, and others objected to Israel's or Ukraine's participation in the Games.


Gender Identity-Based Harassment

Athlete eligibility in women’s sports is a persistent flash point on online platforms. Related ideological content posted online can potentially sway communities to pursue legal action or smear campaigns against regulatory institutions, or boycott Olympic events or sponsors.

  • Right-wing and conservative social media communities are leveraging the 2026 Winter Olympics in a pressure campaign to lobby the IOC for policy changes. They’re advocating bans on transgender women and female athletes with differences in sex development (DSD) from competing in women’s sports.
  • The spike in this social media content appears to be influenced by two events: the Jan. 13, 2026 U.S. Supreme Court hearings of cases to uphold existing state-level transgender athlete bans, and a Nov. 10, 2025 Sky News report claiming the IOC is “considering a ban” on transgender women for the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, California.
  • About a quarter of the relevant posts we saw on X explicitly mention Imane Khelif, revisiting the debate about the boxer’s right to compete at the 2024 Summer Olympics. Online anti-transgender communities have targeted Khelif and boxer Lin Yu-Ting with harassment since their participation in those Games.

 

How Graphika Can Help

The 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics will unfold across platforms, communities, and narratives simultaneously—requiring real-time monitoring that goes beyond keyword tracking. If your organization needs to understand how emerging conversations might affect your operations, brand, or stakeholders during the Games, request a demo to see how Graphika's platform and analysts can help you stay ahead of fast-moving threats.